Fairfax County Schools Warn Fiscal Year 2028 May Require Cuts Near $154 Million

FAIRFAX — Fairfax County Public Schools officials warned this month that fiscal year 2028 is shaping up as another deep-cut budget cycle, with spending commitments outrunning the county transfer and state aid the division expects to receive.

Chief Financial Officer Leigh Burden told the School Board’s budget committee on September 8 that revenue growth from the county and Richmond will not cover collective bargaining raises, health care, retirement, multi-year contracts, and Special Education Extended Day costs. “Early indications suggest that fiscal ’28 will be a difficult budget year,” Burden said, citing inflation, federal workforce instability, energy demand, and the second year of the state biennium when Virginia typically sends less new money.

Fairfax operates the ninth-largest public school division in the country and has already averaged about $135 million in reduced or avoided costs across FY2026 and FY2027. Officials expect FY2028 cuts closer to the $153.9 million reduction imposed in FY2026 — when a smaller-than-requested county transfer forced renegotiation of union raises — than to the $117.6 million cut executed for the current year.

Hypothetical scenarios presented to the committee showed how large the hole could become. Raising average class size by one student would save roughly $35 million, Burden said, stressing the slide was illustrative rather than a recommendation. Central office departments have already been told to prepare 5 percent reduction options. Needs-based staffing, compensation, and program inventories are all on the table.

A quieter structural shift is compounding the squeeze. Fairfax County’s transfer share to schools has slipped from 52.8 percent of local funds in FY2020 to 51.1 percent in FY2027. Burden said that 0.7-point erosion equals nearly $340 million over the period, including almost $100 million in FY2027 alone. The division’s nominal budget can still rise while its slice of county revenue shrinks — a pattern that makes multi-year planning harder for Superintendent Michelle Reid.

Middle School After School programs illustrate the friction. Supervisors previously funded the gang-prevention-rooted program on the county side; shifting those costs into the school transfer effectively reduced the net new money available for classrooms. More than 23,000 middle-schoolers enrolled during 2025–2026. The program’s annual operating cost is about $11 million. Springfield District representative Sandy Anderson has floated voluntary donations and public-private partnerships instead of a participation fee, while Hunter Mill representative Melanie Meren has pressed the county not to quietly offload costs.

Reid warned that the three-year collective bargaining agreement approved in December 2024 did not anticipate the county share falling to 51.1 percent by year three. “That … puts our ability to meet that CBA requirement in a bit of jeopardy,” she told colleagues. Board members also resisted cutting needs-based staffing that targets students with higher needs.

Sully District representative Seema Dixit framed the briefing as an early community heads-up rather than an accusation that supervisors are “not doing the job.” As a small-business employer, Dixit said her own health insurance quotes rose 59 percent for the coming year, underscoring that medical inflation is hitting every large payroll — including FCPS.

The calendar now runs through a November fiscal forecast from Reid, a January superintendent’s budget proposal, a February School Board adoption vote, and the County Executive’s advertised budget the same month. Bryan Hill’s office and the Board of Supervisors will have the final word on the transfer percentage that largely determines whether FCPS can honor negotiated raises without enlarging class sizes.

Advocacy groups for Special Education and for after-school enrichment are already circulating the committee slides. Teacher unions that bargained the 2024 agreement will watch whether the county share rebounds before FY2028 adoption. Parent-teacher associations in denser corridors such as Reston, Annandale, and the Route 1 area say they fear larger classes first, program fees second.

State aid remains a secondary but real variable. Virginia’s Standards of Quality set floor staffing ratios that Fairfax usually exceeds. Burden noted the division may have to retreat toward those state floors in some categories if local revenue does not recover — a politically painful step in a county that markets small classes as a quality brand.

For now, the message from the budget committee is caution without a locked cut list. Central office 5 percent exercises will surface options; the November forecast will quantify the gap; and winter negotiations with the Board of Supervisors will decide whether Fairfax schools face another $150 million-class reduction or a softer landing. Families and staff should expect a louder budget season than the one that closed FY2027.

Email Fairfax County Supervisors At:
Jeff McKay → chairman@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Kathy Smith (Sully District) sully@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Rachna Heizer (Braddock District) braddock@fairfaxcounty.gov,
James Bierman (Dranesville District) dranesville@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Rodney Lusk (Franconia District) franconia@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Walter Alcorn (Hunter Mill District) huntermill@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Andres Jimenez (Mason District) mason@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Daniel Storck (Mount Vernon District)  mtvernon@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Dalia Palchik (Providence District)  providence@fairfaxcounty.gov,
Pat Herrity (Springfield District) springfield@fairfaxcounty.gov,

 

To Contact Fairfax School Board Members:
All Members - FairfaxCountySchoolBoard@fcps.edu,
Tom Dannan - tfdannan@fcps.edu, 
Robyn Lady - ralady1@fcps.edu,
Marcia St. John-Cunning -  mstjohncunni@fcps.edu,
Melanie Meren - HunterMillStaff@fcps.edu,
Ricardy Anderson - randerson@fcps.edu,
Mateo Dunne - mdunne@fcps.edu,
Karl Frisch - kfrisch@fcps.edu,
Sandy Anderson - sanderson@fcps.edu,
Seema Dixit - sdixit@fcps.edu,
Kyle McDaniel - kmcdaniel@fcps.edu,
Ryan McElveen - rlmcelveen@fcps.edu,
Ilryong Moon - imoon@fcps.edu,