Industrial Facilities Dominate Permitted Groundwater Withdrawals in Virginia’s Coastal Plain

A 2026 report from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality finds that industrial facilities, including paper mills, specialty chemical plants, and poultry operations, account for the largest share of permitted groundwater withdrawals in the Coastal Plain east of Interstate 95. Five of the top users alone exert sufficient influence to shape regional water levels across the Eastern Virginia and Eastern Shore Groundwater Management Areas.

The study examined reported and estimated withdrawals under a directive from Senate Joint Resolution 25 of the 2024 General Assembly session. Combined across the two management areas, industrial use represents approximately 35 percent of the total, private domestic use 34 percent, and public water supply 26 percent. Among the highest-volume permitted facilities in 2024, five industrial operations in paper production, specialty chemicals, and poultry ranked among the top users and collectively influence hydraulic conditions over broad portions of the aquifer system.

Historical and Current Industrial Influence

Paper mills near Franklin and West Point have historically ranked among the largest groundwater users. Sustained high-volume withdrawals from these and other industrial facilities contributed to the decline of inland water levels below sea level and the reversal of predevelopment flow patterns. Groundwater now tends to move inward toward major industrial centers and downward through the layered aquifer system. The same pressure reductions are linked to aquifer compaction, measurable land subsidence, and conditions that favor localized increases in chloride concentrations.

The confined Potomac aquifer accounts for approximately 70 percent of total reported and estimated withdrawals in the Eastern Virginia Groundwater Management Area. On the Eastern Shore, the Yorktown-Eastover system supplies about 95 percent of withdrawals. Private domestic withdrawals remain largely unpermitted and are estimated from census and water-use data. The study projects that growth in household wells will add an average of 200,000 to 300,000 gallons per day to total annual withdrawals each year through 2050.

Monitoring and Hydraulic Effects

The statewide groundwater observation well network, operated cooperatively by the Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey, includes more than 440 wells. Many provide continuous water-level records that document the regional influence of the largest industrial withdrawals. Expansion of the network continues in both the Coastal Plain and areas west of Interstate 95. These data support the finding that a small number of facilities can shape water-level trends across wide areas.

The report notes that the Ground Water Management Act of 1992 produced mixed results. Following the 2010 closure of the Franklin Mill and subsequent management actions between 2014 and 2017, the annual overall groundwater deficit in the Potomac aquifer was reduced to nearly zero for about a decade. Regional levels rose and broadly stabilized until approximately 2021, after which rising trends stalled and signs of renewed decline appeared. The concentrated industrial demand continues to form a primary driver of these patterns.

Capacity Limits and Future Considerations

Modeling of future capacity shows limited remaining ability to accommodate significant new withdrawals. Hypothetical industrial demands of three million gallons per day failed to meet permit criteria at every tested location. Maximum allowable new volumes ranged from 360,000 gallons per day in Northumberland County to less than 30,000 gallons per day in several western regions near the Interstate 95 corridor. Most existing data centers in the region draw from public surface-water systems rather than direct groundwater withdrawals.

The Department of Environmental Quality presents recommendations that include clarifying statutory authority to deny or reduce permits when alternative sources such as surface water or reuse are reasonably available, requiring local comprehensive plans in management areas to reflect groundwater constraints, and addressing scientific and legal questions before any groundwater trading program is considered. Managed aquifer recharge projects are noted as potential tools for future capacity enhancement.

The documented dominance of industrial facilities among the largest permitted users provides a technical foundation for decisions by the General Assembly, the State Water Control Board, and local governments. The findings confirm that five of the top industrial operations continue to shape regional water levels in the Coastal Plain aquifer system, with implications for water availability, quality trends, and long-term resource management across the area east of Interstate 95.

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Northumberland County is a county in Virginia's Northern Neck. Its county seat is Heathsville.