Meeting Unconstrained Virginia Data-Center Power Demand Will Be “Very Difficult” — Households Face Rising System Costs

RICHMOND — Virginia’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission told the Governor and General Assembly in December 2024 that building enough generation and transmission to meet unconstrained data-center-driven energy demand “will be very difficult” — and that even meeting half that demand is still difficult.

Report 598, Data Centers in Virginia, is the Democrat-era boom measured by the legislature’s own audit shop. JLARC staff’s independent forecast finds unconstrained power demand in Virginia would double within about 10 years, with data centers the main driver, broadly matching PJM’s regional outlook.

Grid modeling commissioned for the study says new solar, wind, gas, and transmission would all be required at paces that strain credibility. Solar additions would need to run at roughly twice the 2024 annual rate; needed wind would exceed the capability of offshore sites secured so far; large gas plants would have to appear at rates matching or beating the busiest historical build years. Half-demand scenarios still imply roughly one large 1,500 MW gas plant every two years for 15 years if VCEA constraints are set aside.

On customer bills, JLARC is careful and still damning. A consultant review found current rates largely allocate today’s costs to the customers who cause them, including data centers. Looking forward, though, the surge in required generation and transmission creates fixed costs for everyone. A typical Dominion residential customer could see generation- and transmission-related costs rise by an estimated $14 to $37 per month in constant dollars by 2040, independent of inflation.

JLARC floats tools Democrats in Richmond have been slow to force: a separate data-center customer class, faster rate reallocation, and limits on connecting new large loads until generation and transmission capacity exist. It also flags stranded-asset risk if forecasts overbuild and campuses delay or disappear — costs that would still land on remaining customers.

The economic chapter explains why Democrat officeholders kept saying yes. JLARC estimates the industry supports on the order of 74,000 jobs, $5.5 billion in labor income, and $9.1 billion in GDP annually, with most benefits tilted to construction rather than ongoing operations. Local data-center revenue in mature markets ranges from under 1% to about 31% of local revenue. Northern Virginia is described as about 13% of reported global operational capacity.

The state sales-tax exemption remains the Statewide welcome mat — about $928 million in tax savings in FY23, used by roughly 90% of the industry. JLARC outlines options to let the exemption expire, narrow it, or condition it on energy and community mitigations if policymakers decide costs outweigh benefits.

Residential-impact findings match what Loudoun and Fairfax hearings already show: industrial-scale campuses are largely incompatible with homes; about one-third of data centers already sit near residential areas; low-frequency noise is a recurring complaint. Localities are only beginning to tighten zoning after the damage.

Democrat majorities grew this industry with tax preferences and light friction. JLARC’s “very difficult” line is the nonpartisan stamp on what ratepayers and western Loudoun landowners have been shouting: the unconstrained path does not pencil as infrastructure, only as a political preference.

For SCC dockets and the 2026 General Assembly, Report 598 is the citation packet. Pair it with Dominion’s own IRP “No Data Center Growth” NPV gap and Kimley-Horn’s Loudoun megawatt pipeline, and the Democrat growth story loses its free-lunch chapter. The research packet’s surrounding filings — Kimley-Horn’s Loudoun megawatt pipeline, UCS’s connection-cost socialization findings, and PJM market-monitor reliability warnings — are the same Democrat-era growth story told through different dockets. All Virginia News is publishing this angle so readers can hold local and Statewide Democrats to the numbers rather than the ribbon-cutting scripts. Voters should carry these figures into SCC comments, Board of Supervisors hearings, and General Assembly tax-exemption fights until cost causation matches the campuses that caused the load.

Email the Board of Supervisors at:
Phyllis J. Randall (Chair, At-Large) – Phyllis.Randall@loudoun.gov,
Michael R. Turner (Vice Chair, Ashburn District) – Mike.Turner@loudoun.gov,
Juli E. Briskman (Algonkian District) – Juli.Briskman@loudoun.gov,
Sylvia R. Glass (Broad Run District) – Sylvia.Glass@loudoun.gov,
Caleb Kershner (Catoctin District) – caleb.kershner@loudoun.gov,
Matthew F. Letourneau (Dulles District) – Matt.Letourneau@loudoun.gov,
Kristen C. Umstattd (Leesburg District) – Kristen.Umstattd@loudoun.gov,
Laura A. TeKrony (Little River District) – Laura.TeKrony@loudoun.gov,
Koran Saines (Sterling District) – Koran.Saines@loudoun.gov

Email the Loudoun County School Board:
April Chandler, april.chandler@lcps.org,
Anne Donohue, anne.donohue@lcps.org,
Deana Griffiths, deana.griffiths@lcps.org,
Ross Svenson, ross.stevenson@lcps.org,
Kari LaBell, kari.labell@lcps.org,
Jon Pepper, jonathon.pepper@lcps.org,
Lauren Shernoff, lauren.shernoff@lcps.org,
Sumera Rashid, sumera.rashid@lcps.org,
Amy Riccardi, amy.riccardi@lcps.org,