Virginia Study Projects Declining Groundwater Availability Within Five to Ten Years Under Current Trajectories

A 2026 report from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality finds that stabilized gains in groundwater levels across the Coastal Plain east of Interstate 95 are already stalling. Models project renewed declines in availability within five to ten years in key areas if current withdrawal patterns continue without policy changes. The analysis forms part of a broader examination of the aquifer system directed by Senate Joint Resolution 25 from the 2024 General Assembly session.

Researchers evaluated long-term water-level records, historical withdrawal data, and hydraulic modeling of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system. Following the 2010 closure of the Franklin Mill and subsequent management actions between 2014 and 2017, the annual overall groundwater deficit in the Potomac aquifer was reduced to nearly zero for approximately a decade. Regional levels rose and broadly stabilized until around 2021. Rising trends then stalled, and more recent observations indicate the onset of renewed declines.

Factors Contributing to the Projected Trajectory

Industrial facilities, including paper mills, specialty chemical plants, and poultry operations, account for approximately 35 percent of total reported and estimated withdrawals and include five of the top permitted users that shape regional water levels. Private domestic wells represent about 34 percent of demand and remain largely unpermitted. Growth in these household wells is projected to increase total annual withdrawals by an average of 200,000 to 300,000 gallons per day each year through 2050. Public water supply accounts for the remaining 26 percent.

Decades of heavy pumping lowered inland water levels below sea level and reversed predevelopment flow patterns, with groundwater now moving inward toward industrial centers and downward through the aquifer layers. These altered conditions contribute to aquifer compaction, measurable land subsidence, and localized increases in chloride concentrations. The same hydraulic setting limits the system’s capacity to maintain the temporary equilibrium achieved in the previous decade.

Monitoring and Capacity Assessment

The statewide groundwater observation well network, operated cooperatively by the Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey, includes more than 440 wells. Many provide continuous water-level records that document the stalling of earlier gains and the early signs of renewed decline. Expansion of the network continues in both the Coastal Plain and areas west of Interstate 95. These data, combined with modeling, support the projection of declining availability within five to ten years under current trajectories.

Modeling of future capacity shows limited remaining ability to accommodate significant new withdrawals. Hypothetical industrial demands of three million gallons per day failed to meet permit criteria at every tested location. Maximum allowable new volumes ranged from 360,000 gallons per day in Northumberland County to less than 30,000 gallons per day in several western regions near the Interstate 95 corridor. Most existing data centers draw from public surface-water systems rather than direct groundwater withdrawals.

Regulatory Context and Recommendations

The Ground Water Management Act of 1992 requires permits for withdrawals of 300,000 gallons or more in any month within designated management areas. The report characterizes the act’s results as mixed. The temporary stabilization demonstrated that regulation can influence water levels, yet the effect has proven limited and is now showing signs of erosion. The confined Potomac aquifer accounts for approximately 70 percent of withdrawals in the Eastern Virginia management area, while the Yorktown-Eastover system supplies about 95 percent on the Eastern Shore.

The Department of Environmental Quality presents recommendations that include clarifying statutory authority to deny or reduce permits when alternative sources such as surface water or reuse are reasonably available, requiring local comprehensive plans in management areas to reflect groundwater constraints, and addressing scientific and legal questions before any groundwater trading program is considered. Managed aquifer recharge projects are noted as potential tools for future capacity enhancement.

The documented stalling of stabilized gains and the projection of declining availability within five to ten years provide a technical foundation for decisions by the General Assembly, the State Water Control Board, and local governments. The findings confirm that under current trajectories the Coastal Plain aquifer system faces renewed pressure, with implications for water availability, quality trends, and long-term resource management across the region east of Interstate 95.

Email the House of Delegates at:
Jessica Anderson: DelJAnderson@house.virginia.gov,
Bonita Anthony: DelBAnthony@house.virginia.gov,
Alex Askew: DelAAskew@house.virginia.gov,
Terry Austin: DelTAustin@house.virginia.gov,
Jason Ballard: DelJBallard@house.virginia.gov,
Robert Bloxom, Jr.: DelRBloxom@house.virginia.gov,
Gretchen Bulova: DelGBulova@house.virginia.gov,
Katrina Callsen: DelKCallsen@house.virginia.gov,
Karen Carnegie: DelKCarnegie@house.virginia.gov,
Betsy Carr: DelBCarr@house.virginia.gov,
Stacey Carroll: DelSCarroll@house.virginia.gov,
Mike Cherry: DelMCherry@house.virginia.gov,
Nadarius Clark: DelNClark@house.virginia.gov,
Laura Cohen: DelLJCohen@house.virginia.gov,
Joshua Cole: DelJCole@house.virginia.gov,
Nicole Cole: DelNCole@house.virginia.gov,
Kelly Convirs-Fowler: DelKConvirs-Fowler@house.virginia.gov,
Mitchell Cornett: DelMCornett@house.virginia.gov,
Rae Cousins: DelRCousins@house.virginia.gov,
Will Davis: DelWDavis@house.virginia.gov,
Karrie Delaney: DelKDelaney@house.virginia.gov,
Lindsey Dougherty: DelLDougherty@house.virginia.gov,
Mark Downey: DelMDowney@house.virginia.gov,
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Hyland Fowler, Jr.: DelBFowler@house.virginia.gov,
Lily Franklin: DelLFranklin@house.virginia.gov,
Margaret Franklin: DelMFranklin@house.virginia.gov,
Debra Gardner: DelDGardner@house.virginia.gov,
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Elizabeth Guzman: DelEGuzman@house.virginia.gov,
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Jay Leftwich, Jr.: DelJLeftwich@house.virginia.gov,
Alfonso Lopez: DelALopez@house.virginia.gov,
Fernando Martinez: DelMMartinez@house.virginia.gov,
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Leslie Mehta: DelLMehta@house.virginia.gov,
Will Morefield: DelJMorefield@house.virginia.gov,
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Cia Price: DelMPrice@house.virginia.gov,
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Don Scott: DelDScott@house.virginia.gov,
Phillip Scott: DelPScott@house.virginia.gov,
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JJ Singh: DelJSingh@house.virginia.gov,
Rip Sullivan, Jr.: DelRSullivan@house.virginia.gov,
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Eric Zehr: DelEZehr@house.virginia.gov,

Northumberland County is a county in Virginia's Northern Neck. Its county seat is Heathsville.