Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears remains locked in a close race against both potential Democratic challengers, according to a new Mason-Dixon Poll released Friday. The survey comes on the heels of an Emerson College poll from Thursday that also found Earle-Sears and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger in a dead heat for Virginia’s governorship.
In the Mason-Dixon poll, Earle-Sears trails Spanberger 44% to 47%, while holding a slight lead over U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, Newport News, with 46% to 44%. Scott, who has openly mused about running for governor as a Democrat, has not formally declared his candidacy but is considered by some a potential contender.
The Mason-Dixon results align with the tight contest suggested by Emerson’s findings, which showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 42% to 41%, with 4% backing another candidate and 13% undecided.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, noted that the race is likely to remain highly competitive but pointed to a key factor that could tip the scales: Donald Trump.
“Virginia has rejected Trump three times,” Sabato said, adding that the gubernatorial election, like many midterms, could act as a referendum on the sitting president.
Sabato suggested that if Trump remains unpopular in Virginia, it could benefit Spanberger.
“If Trump becomes radioactive, Spanberger will win,” he said.
Conversely, if Trump’s approval improves and he remains only slightly underwater — or even reaches positive territory — Earle-Sears could have a clear path to victory.
However, Sabato expressed skepticism that Scott or former U.S. Rep. Denver Riggleman, a moderate Republican considering an independent bid, will ultimately enter the race.
“The odds are substantially against them if they do,” he said.
The poll also highlights Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s enduring popularity. Despite a bruising presidential campaign season, Youngkin maintains a 58% approval rating, with only 37% of voters disapproving of his performance and 5% undecided.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted from December 15 to December 19, 2024, and surveyed 625 registered Virginia voters via live telephone interviews. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.
