Experts say that reports of the NoVa housing collapse are exaggerated.

Has the Northern Virginia Housing Market Imploded in the wake of Elon Musk and President Donald Trump‘s efforts at firing hundreds of federal workers via Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency?

Terry Clower of George Mason University‘s Schar School of Policy and Government wrote an email on Monday stating that there are hoax posts going around the Internet. There is no evidence that federal workers have a significant impact on the housing market.

Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, a Maryland-based real estate data company, said that between February 3 and 16 there were 2,829 listings added to the Washington, D.C., marketplace. In 2024, there were 2,820 listings in the same area.

Sturtevant’s region included Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park, the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Washington, D.C., five Maryland municipalities, and Washington, D.C.

Sturtevant stated that there was no surge in new listings. Sturtevant said, “We cannot see any surge in the number of new listings.”

Northern Virginia Association of Realtors‘ CEO Ryan T. McLaughlin urged buyers and homeowners to take a deep breath before reading social media posts that discuss the collapse of the real estate market in the region.

He said, “Like everything else you read on the Internet, you can’t always believe what you see.”

Virginia is home to more than 140 000 federal employees, according U.S. Senator Tim Kaine, Virginia’s junior senator. The Trump administration has so far laid off 200,000 civilian federal employees, and issued return-to office mandates for all agencies.

NVAR keeps a close eye on the market’s response to federal mandates for returning to work and reductions in the workforce. McLaughlin stated that about 30% of federal employees are eligible to retire.

He said that some people may decide to leave the workforce altogether rather than endure long commutes to work if they were forced to do so. Some may decide to commute. Some people may decide to buy a house closer to D.C.

Sturtevant says that even though housing inventory has increased in Washington, D.C., and across the United States, it is still lower than pre-pandemic levels for most markets. According to Virginia Realtors, the state’s housing was static in 2024 with only 102,509 sales. This is just 4,000 fewer than last year.

New listings are increasing in some markets around Washington, D.C. Sturtevant stated that the geographical pattern of listing activity does not indicate a connection between federal employees and homeowners.

Spotsylvania had 27% more new listings, while Stafford was 30% less.

Chris Colgan is a realtor who works with buyers and sellers of properties in Northern Virginia. He said that he has clients who have made offers this weekend. He said that “every single house had multiple bids.”

Data also does not support the idea that sellers are panicking and slashing prices. Sturtevant reported that 6.9% of the active listings in Washington, D.C., had been reduced last week. She said that the price reductions were almost identical to those of last year, and also the week before.

Sturtevant noted Monday that she is working on a study that shows that the number of buyers who request home tours in the D.C. Metro [region] has “dipped a little sharper than in other markets,” meaning that buyers may not be as interested in D.C. at this point as they were last year.

She said that while there might be “some pullback” in the market, “it is not this big change in the market conditions.”