Virginia Democrats were able to pull off a blue wave by leveraging green money. On television, some challengers were able to outspend incumbent Republicans 14-1.

Bobby Orrock served as a delegate in the House of Delegates longer than any other member. Caroline County Republican Bobby Orrock never faced any opposition during many of these years. The campaigns he ran were not particularly close.

Orrock had never faced a candidate such as Nicole Cole, or run in an election year like 2025.

The changing demographics of his district, which is located along Interstate 95 south from Fredericksburg, had made him so vulnerable that House Democrats designated him as one of their official targets. Nicole Cole of the Spotsylvania County Board of Education ran against him. Orrock had to raise more money for this campaign than he ever did before – 63.5%.

Orrock began buying television ads worth $16,499 every week in early October — a task he had never done before. In some years, Orrock’s campaign finance reports do not show any money spent on television ads. Cole, however, had already beaten him to the airwaves. In September, Cole had already spent $53,064 while Orrock was not on air. Cole spent more in October than Orrock, who was still spending $16,499 per week on TV advertising. In the first two weeks in October, Cole spent just under $28,000 per week. Cole’s spending jumped to $123,545 in the third week. Orrock had still spent $16,499 on ads.

Orrock’s election campaign increased its spending to $20,000 per week two weeks before Election Day. Cole increased her expenditures to $391.898 in that same week. Orrock spent $21,074 on television ads in the final week of her campaign. But Cole covered television with $619.082 worth of commercials.

Orrock spent $90 571 on TV ads by the end of his campaign, which was more than double what he spent two years earlier. Cole spent $1.243.991 — nearly 14 times more. This is only for TV ads, not social media.

It was no surprise to those who had been following the campaign spending that Cole won the election with 52.14 percent of the votes.

The fall of 2008 was dominated by the Governor’s race. However, there were 85 House of Delegates races in the state that were contested (out of 100). California doctor Fergie Jr., the son of former Del. Ferguson Reid, Richmond’s first Black Member of the House in 19th-century times, had to organise a fundraiser for Democratic candidates who were in districts that the party thought would not win, mainly rural districts in western parts of the state. The Democrats in these 14 districts were able to see a spigot of cash that was poured out at full force towards the end of campaign.

The Democrats have won 13 out of 14 races targeted to gain their largest majority in the House of Representatives since 1988-89 — even before many of the legislators who are currently or will be soon be elected were born.

This fall, there was a “blue-wave” of some magnitude (I wrote earlier that it wasn’t quite as large as Democrats thought because, while their vote for Governor increased by 20% compared to four years ago Republicans saw a drop of 13.7% which magnified the Democratic victory). Republicans who lost 13 seats in the midterm elections were not only caught up in a blue and red riptide but also by a green swell of Democratic money with which they could not compete. Or, as Del. David Helmer, D, Fairfax County, who was the campaign chair of the House Democrats, says, “We could outcommunicate Republicans in a massive way.”

The numbers that are shown here come from the “public file”, which broadcasters must keep of all campaign ad purchases.

House District 30 in Virginia, which includes parts of Fauquier County and Loudoun County, was one of the most closely contested races. Geary Higgins was the incumbent Republican, and John McAuliff was his Democratic opponent. These campaigns were broadcast on TV in September in the expensive Northern Virginia market. McAuliff outspent Higgins consistently. At first, there wasn’t a big difference. In the first week in October, McAuliff bought ads worth $37,409, while Higgins purchased ads worth $20,000. McAuliff then stepped up the ante and Higgins didn’t. McAuliff spent $499,193 on ads, while Higgins only paid $25,000 for the same period. McAuliff spent $608,734 in the final week on TV ads while Higgins only had $78,574.

McAuliff spent more than $1.8million on TV, Higgins $250,000 This is a ratio 13.8:1.

McAuliff’s victory with 50.89% is likely due to many factors, but one of those was his ability to shout out his message during the final weeks of the race. Helmer says, “It was important. In the last three weeks before the election, the Democrats spent more on advertising than the Republican ticket in Virginia House combined.” “That was a key factor in the victory.”

It’s not just television money that’s important; it’s the easiest to see. There are also texting and telephone campaigns that take place behind the scenes to identify potential voters and ensure they turn out to vote. These are more like surgical operations, as opposed to television which is a blunt instrument. When I write about reports on campaign finance, I warn that money isn’t everything — and it isn’t. All these things can be expensive, especially television time, in larger markets.

The winning Democrats of these targeted elections this year spent a lot more on television than their Republican opponents. Another race with a large imbalance, besides the two above, was House District 64 in Stafford County. In September, Democrat Stacey Carroll began buying television airtime with $32,656; Republican incumbent Paul Milde purchased just $200. Milde had spent $77,422 on television ads by the end of the campaign, but Carroll had spent $556,943, bringing her total to $1.27million, while Milde’s was only $122,174.

Even in the targeted race where Democrats failed to deliver, some losing Democrats spent more than Republicans. Democrat Andrew Payton defeated Del. Tony Wilt (R-Rockingham County) was outspent by a small margin — $168.117 in television compared to $155,350. Wilt narrowly won the election with 50.38%, but Democrats may have been able to pick up an extra seat had they spent a bit more on television.

You get the picture. I could continue but you’ll get it. It’s not about the math, but rather why. Was it a case of spectacular Democratic fundraising success or a catastrophic Republican fail, or both? Most of the time, it was the former.

Data collected by the Virginia Public Access Projectshows from 2005 to 2009, the two parties raised about equal amounts of money in the House of Delegates election. Between 2011 and 2015, Republicans raised a greater amount of money. In 2017, Democrats raised almost the same amount as Republicans. Since then, Democrats outraised Republicans every cycle in the House — and margins are growing.

In 2017, Republicans raised just under $25 million, while Democrats raised nearly $24.6 million. In 2017, Republicans raised just over $25 million while Democrats raised almost $24.6 million. — $66,154,571. These figures are based off of the campaign finance reports that were filed before the election. It’s possible these numbers could be higher. Mark Peake (R-Lynchburg), state senator and chair of the Republican state party, called these numbers “shocking”. This is almost the same amount of money that Spanberger raised for her gubernatorial campaign in three years. In the last two years, House Democrats have raised slightly more money than their party’s gubernatorial candidates.

The big picture: Republicans’ fundraising hasn’t increased that much, while Democrats’ have almost tripled. If you look only at the last four years, Republican funding increased by 2.6% and Democratic fundraising rose by 15%.

Helmer claims that this was not an accident. This is part of a 3-year plan, which has seen Virginia Democrats changing their campaigning approach.

Let’s go back to the year 2021 when Republicans, led by Glenn Youngkin, won all three statewide elections and the House of Delegates despite Democrats raising more money. Helmer says that some people thought the loss of the majority was due to the governor’s election, but it wasn’t the case. We lost by 200 votes and didn’t spend much money. The “200 votes”, refers to the two close House races that Democratic incumbents in Hampton Roads lost — one by just 115 votes and one by only 94 votes. In 2022, the House Democrats rebelled because they felt that the Democrats would have won had then-Speaker Eileen Filler Corn approved the spending of some of the $900,000.000 in various campaign funds she had. The Democrats began plotting their comeback. In 2023 they won a narrow 21-19 majority, which elevated Scott as speaker.

Helmer says that the fact that the Governor’s Party has never lost control of Virginia’s House during midterm elections is a part of the story. He says that the victory set in motion a “two-year effort” to build up a dragon’s treasure trove of resources.

Helmer claims that in 2025, every member of the Democratic House contributed to the campaign fund. In the past, Democrats who held safe seats did not see the need to do so. House caucus took more control of campaigns in 2025 than they had previously, and set strict rules on how candidates must run their campaigns to get party support. Although fundraising targets varied by district, there was one universal rule: each candidate had to knock on at least 5,000 doors. He says that each candidate had to do their part.

The party helped candidates develop their messages. He says that they had to differentiate their candidates from the national Democratic brand, which was not resonating. They also needed to create a distinct Democratic brand. “We wanted to differentiate ourselves from the Republican Party, which was more focused on who used which bathroom. We were concerned with how much it cost to get groceries or health care. This makes a big difference. This message was in line with the Democratic gubernatorial candidates Abigail Spanberger’s as well.

Helmer went door-to-door with the Democrats of the districts targeted to gain a better understanding of their campaigns. He also attended some fundraising calls in order to teach candidates how to ask for donations. Helmer claims that “we executed our plan with military accuracy”. By the way, he knows what that word means. He is a West Point graduate who served in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East. Scott is also a former Naval Officer.

Four Democrats were also considered vulnerable. In political parlance, “Defends” are Nadarius in Suffolk, Joshua Cole, in Fredericksburg, Michael Feggans, in Virginia Beach, and Josh Thomas, in Prince William County. Helmer states that “our defends performed so well, we were able shift resources to the front-line races.” In September, it became apparent to us that our defends were not really defends. The Republicans misjudged the situation.

In late summer, campaign finance reports revealed that Orrock, the incumbent Republican in Caroline County, had been contributing money to the Republican in the district next door. Helmer: “We said that we would take Bobby out.” He was giving away money.

Democrats were able, however, to divert money from other districts to this one because they had a lot of it and did so well in other areas that certain candidates didn’t require it.