Pulaski county seems to be thriving in an age when talent is seen as the key to success and the labor pool is shrinking.
Pulaski gained 465 new residents in the age group 25-44 from 2020 to 2024. The 6.1% increase in this age group, expressed as a percentage, was the largest of any community west of the New River. Pulaski was able to attract this age group in greater numbers. It attracted more people between the ages of 25 and 44 than Montgomery County, a county that is three times the size of Pulaski.
It’s not surprising, but it isn’t the most shocking thing. Pulaski’s population grew faster than other localities in Northern Virginia. Loudoun County gained only 58 people in this age group while Pulaski gained 465. Arlington, Alexandria and Prince William County all saw their population in this age group shrink.
Pulaski attracted so many people of the youngest age group that another remarkable thing happened: while the state and the nation are getting older, Pulaski has been growing younger. Pulaski has seen its median age drop from 47 to 46 over the last four years. Statistics show that the county’s median age is still quite high, but you can no longer say that Pulaski exports young adults. It’s actually importing more young adults than any other locality in Northern Virginia. Hampton Roads is another option.
In spite of all this, the population of Pulaski County fell between 2020 and 2024.
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The U.S. Census Bureau has released a new set of numbers that deal with age. These data help us better understand how Virginia’s rural communities are changing.
We’ll start by stating what we already knew: Virginia’s growth is slower than it was before due to a combination reduced immigration and declining birthrates. This growth is concentrated in certain areas of the state. Specifically, from the Shenandoah valley to Hampton Roads. Rural Virginia is losing most of its population.
Imagine that surface trend. As a lake may appear calm, there could be currents that we cannot see. There are many contradictory trends that lie beneath the surface of these population numbers. In rural Virginia, more people are moving in than out. This is a major change from the previous decades. Many of these rural communities still lose population due to their age, as deaths are outnumbering both births and net migration of newcomers. I have said before that there are more hearses on the road than moving vans.
New age data helps us understand who and where is moving and moving out. The largest change is the fact that Northern Virginia’s population between 25 and 44 is mostly flat or shrinking. In rural Virginia, this age group is on the rise in most areas. Pulaski county is unique in Southwest Virginia because of its high success rate. But Pulaski’s not the only one statewide. Bedford County, located near three major population centers, (Lynchburg and Smith Mountain Lake) as well as Roanoke, has seen the most growth in the 25-44 year old age bracket. This is more than any other county west of the urban crescent. Mecklenburg County, in Southside, has seen a 500-person increase, at least part of which can be attributed to the expansion of the Microsoft data centers complex.
Hamilton Lombard is a demographer at the Weldon Center for Public Services, University of Virginia. Here’s what he has to say about these numbers. Email: “Mirroring the national trend, young adults are increasingly moving to or remaining in Virginia’s small metro areas and rural county and leaving or not moving to Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.” In Virginia, the trend does not appear to be a result of an isolated spike during the pandemic. The number of people moving to areas outside Virginia’s three largest metro areas was double what it was in 2019.
Why are young adults not moving to the biggest metros in our country? Lombard points to two factors: high housing prices, which deter people from moving into higher-priced areas, and remote employment, which allows people to live anywhere they choose (or can afford). He said that the labor market is still tight, with participation rates at record highs. This means there are more job opportunities in smaller markets like Danville and Roanoke than a decade ago.
The world has changed (or Virginia has): In the last four years, the Lynchburg Metro has added nearly as many people aged 25-44 to the entire Hampton Roads region — 3,312 in Lynchburg, and 4,347 in Hampton Roads. Roanoke Valley is further behind (1,849) but it’s still more people than many other localities, including Arlington, Loudoun, and Prince William counties. Suffolk has seen a 3,325 increase in its population, while Norfolk and Virginia Beach saw a decline in their 25-44 cohort. This is consistent with the observation of people having to move farther out to find affordable housing. It also helps to explain why rural areas are experiencing housing crises at the same time as they are losing residents. All these people needing a place of their own.
Both metros are getting older as fewer 25-44 year olds move to Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia. Lombard stated that “Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia and the United States as a whole have seen their median age rise much faster than before (from 38.5 to 39.1 between 2020 and 2024).” Fairfax has now a median age higher than the U.S. for the likely first time in more than a century. Loudoun has seen its median age increase the most among Virginia localities since 2020. Loudoun has traditionally had one of Virginia’s lowest median ages. Loudoun, Northern Virginia and other localities have lost more families and attracted fewer in recent years. Births in Virginia are down by 10 percent since 2015. However, in Loudoun and Northern Virginia, births have dropped by 13 percent, Fairfax 19 percent, and Arlington 28 percent, largely due to families leaving the area.
Meanwhile, certain places in Virginia — outside the urban crescent – are growing younger. Out of Virginia’s total 133 counties and cities, 46 have a younger population. These are all rural counties or communities on the edges of the urban crescent such as Isle of Wight, Louisa, and Southwest.
Martinsville is the community with the largest drop in median age. In four years, it has dropped from 39.7 down to 36.1. This is due to the city’s population growth in all age groups 44 and under and its population decline in those 45 and older. This is a drop by 3.6 years, while most communities only change by a few decimal points. Franklin, which has a median age of 3.4 years, isn’t far behind.
Statistics can be misleading
Look at the map to see which localities (the green and red ones) are getting younger. Many of the counties located in Virginia’s southwest corner are getting younger.
With a few notable exceptions, their population is not getting younger, despite the influx of young people. In fact, the population of those aged 25-44 is decreasing. Some of these counties are getting younger because the population 65 years and older is shrinking more rapidly — usually through death. The “youth movement”, as shown in these statistics, is not a sign of a large number of younger residents.
Martinsville, on the other hand, grew in a much more direct way – its population grew as it grew younger, and its population grew older.
Waynesboro’s population grew in all age groups, but its median age decreased slightly. This is because the city saw more growth in young adults (559 new residents in the 25-44 age group) than in senior adults (336 new residents in the 65+ age group).
These statistics are good news for communities that have been used to hearing bad news about demographics, especially the departure of young adults. These statistics also validate the many policy initiatives that some communities have undertaken to become more attractive. Pulaski county, for example, built a middle school in order to replace outdated facilities, and has invested in recreational facilities. Jonathan Sweet, county administrator, said that the strategy is comprehensive and focuses on quality-of-life, affordability, housing opportunities, employment, unique recreation and investment in our schools. The 40-by-30 goal is the underlying principle that drives most of our efforts. We want to have 40,000 residents in Pulaski county by 2030. The marketing department is strong and our tourism department also serves as a sales department. “But a lot of it has to do affordability, opportunities and the quality of service.”
This goal of 40,000 is difficult to achieve. Pulaski is estimated to have a population of 33,108. It’s projected to decrease, not increase, over the next twenty-five years. This is primarily due to the fact that, with an aging population, death statistics are expected to dominate all other statistics.
But projections are not orders. These are estimates that are based on some facts. Some facts won’t change — people do die. Some facts cannot be changed. We’ve seen a big change since 2000: the increase in young adults who either stay in rural areas, or move there. Pulaski is unique in that it’s the only locality that has more people between 25 and 44 than 65 years old.
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