The General Assembly opened its doors for business on Monday with three new members, but with the same political dynamics, perhaps even more so, with a Republican Governor and a narrowly controlled legislature by Democrats.
1. The election year politics will dominate the session
Yes, I’m sure you are too. Virginia is in an election year, and the General Assembly’s actions (or lack thereof) will be seen through this lens. In November we will elect a new Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and all 100 House of Delegates members. The state Senate will not be up for reelection until the year 2027.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed budget amendments contain a number of proposals that may seem like wise policy decisions from the Republican perspective, but Democrats will see them as dead on arrival. There are a number of proposals, including a tax credit on car tax payments and money to parents who send their children away to private school.
Youngkin may want all these things, but realistically he can’t expect to get them through a Democratic-controlled General Assembly. Republicans may feel that it’s better for them politically if Democrats reject all of these measures. They can then use the issues to fire up supporters and possibly win over independents in the fall. It’s all about “shaping battlefields,” as the military says.
The history suggests that the year ahead will be a Democratic one. Virginia has voted consistently for the party in power at the White House since the 1970s. There is only one exception. It’s possible that was a fluke. But this isn’t. In 2017, the year following Donald Trump’s first term in office, the backlash from Virginia voters was so strong that Democrats won their three most important statewide positions and made the biggest gains in Virginia’s legislature since 1899. Republicans are worried about a repeat of Trump’s performance. They recall how successful the slogan “no vehicle tax” was for Republican Jim Gilmore back in 1997. They’d rather run this year on that than defend whatever Trump says or does on any given day.
Be on the lookout, then, for “brochure legislation” – bills that both parties know won’t be passed but look great on a brochure.
2. What to do with a surplus of $2 billion
Virginia has a two-year budget plan that was approved last year. It might seem like a budget-year, but the state has a surplus of $2.2 billion that is projected to reach $3.2 billion in mid-2026. You’ll be surprised, once again, to find out that Democrats and Republicans view the surplus differently. Democrats want to use the surplus to invest in long-delayed goals: They are spending most of it. Republicans view the surplus as an indication that Virginians have been overtaxed, and they want to return it to them as much as possible.
Democrats also understand the appeal of a refund of taxes, especially in an election year. However, they differ on how much the refund should be and who is eligible. Youngkin’s budget proposals surprised many. He chose not to offer a general refund, but instead proposed that half of the surplus be used to fund a three-year tax credit refundable for car tax payments.
Youngkin also suggested that Virginia stop taxing tipping, which would reduce state revenue by approximately $70 million. This proposal, which is similar to one Trump made in the United States, also has a political component: reaching out to a demographic of lower income voters who may have previously voted Democratic or even not voted.
Theoretically, both sides agree that a portion of the surplus will be used to reduce taxes, but they are not yet able to agree on how that should happen. A normal year might see some political pressure for a compromise. But an election year will never be a typical year. Will there be pressure from the political side to avoid an agreement so that both parties can use it as a campaign issue? Look at how the awful (insert either “Democrats” of “Republicans”, depending on your political preferences) prevented you from receiving a refund!
3. Rural-urban tensions will be exacerbated by a three-way conflict: data centers needing energy, state laws requiring more renewables, and rural communities that dislike solar farms
Multiple issues collide. The proliferation of data centres in Northern Virginia has sparked controversy among neighbors who do not like them or want more. Solar projects are being criticized by residents of rural Virginia and especially Southside. They see solar as a blight on the landscape, turning it into an industrial area. A new state report states, that if data center growth continues at the same pace, energy demand will triple by 2040, and that it will be very difficult for the state of Virginia to meet this demand. The state is also unlikely to be able to meet this demand while still meeting the Clean Economy Act requirements that its two largest utilities (Dominion Energy & Appalachian Power), go carbon-free in 2050. Disclosure: Dominion Energy is one of our major donors, but donors do not have a say in the news decisions. See our policy. You can also be a contributor and not have any say in the news, I say. Here’s how. )
Several Northern Virginia legislators will likely push for restrictions on the data centers. Some rural legislators may like this if that means that data centers could start locating in areas of the state where they would be more welcoming to their potential tax revenues and where the relatively few jobs would represent an influx of income. But that doesn’t solve the problem of energy consumption. We all want to have the lights on, and we’re not going to stop using our digital devices. Where will the energy come from?
The issue is too large to be contained on a bumper sticker. However, the politicians of this state will have to address it. There is proposed legislation which would allow the state, in some way, to override any local rejections for solar projects. You can imagine that this is not going to be popular among rural legislators. I mentioned in a column that the politics are difficult for many. The Clean Economy Act is backed by legislators from urban districts who do not have to deal with the controversy surrounding solar farms. Some Republicans want to repeal the Clean Economy Act, but a “all of the Above” energy strategy won’t work when people don’t like energy projects in their neighborhoods, regardless of what type they are. How will this work? The current legislative session won’t solve the problem but there may be some initial skirmishes.
4. Weed is back despite the fact that prospects are unchanged
Review: In 2021 the Democrats wanted to legalize marijuana (what we called cannabis) in Virginia. The Democrats knew that it would be a while before the market rules were sorted out, but didn’t want to see people arrested for something they could legally buy in the near future. So the Democratic-controlled General Assembly passed, and a Democratic governor signed, legislation to legalize personal possession of small amounts of cannabis. The next year, they planned to pass rules for a retail marketplace and thought that a year in which there was a gray area where people could possess cannabis but not buy it would be irrelevant.
In 2021, the voters elected a Republican Governor and Republican House of Delegates. In 2023, even when Democrats won the House back, a Republican Governor was standing in their way. This legal gray area, which was expected to last one year, has now lasted almost four years and is likely to continue longer.
In the meantime, cannabis stores are openly operating in Southwest Virginia, despite a state ban and an attorney general’s opinion. In the meantime, cannabis stores are openly operating especially in Southwest Virginia, where you can walk into any store on Main Street and walk out with an empty bag of weed. Del. Last year, Paul Krizek (D-Fairfax County) and Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), state senators, sponsored legislation. They will do so again this year. Youngkin’s opinion has not changed. But, have any Republican legislators’ minds, especially after seeing the openness of cannabis sales? We’ll see. I wouldn’t count on any cannabis legislation becoming law this coming year. This will force the issue to this fall’s gubernatorial election.
I’ve heard from a number of Republican legislators that they would be willing to support legalization, but they a) didn’t like how the Krizek and Rouse bills were written; b) saw no reason to cast a potentially controversial vote when they knew Youngkin was going to veto it. How controversial would a vote “yes” be? As I have written before, it appears that many Republican voters are willing to compromise based on the results of referendums held in other states. In addition, I’d like to share this interesting data: during the recent special election, our Voter guide questionnaire included a cannabis question. The answer to this question was the second-most searched answer on our website, after the biographical information of the candidates.
5. The ‘Skill games’ are back or not
These electronic games, which some call skill games while others call neighborhood slots machines, should be grouped with cannabis. Although they are illegal, you can find them everywhere. Last year, the legislature passed a law to legalize them. However, a lengthy list of amendments suggested by the governor led to the failure of the bill. Has anything changed since then? We’ll see.
6. Three constitutional amendments on the agenda
The governor cannot veto this because it’s not the way the process works. Democrats are pushing for three constitutional amendments: same-sex union, abortion rights, and the restoration of civil rights after a felony has served its time. Virginia rules require that these amendments must pass twice through the General Assembly before they can be voted on by voters. Democrats will pass these amendments this year and then pass them again next year with a newly elected House of Delegates. This way, they can be put to a referendum. Republicans will have little power to stop the measures this year, given the (slim), Democratic majority in Richmond. However, if Republicans win the House of Delegates, they can. Republicans are threatening to target the abortion rights amendment, as they feel it’s too broad.
In the last session, 3,128 resolutions and bills were filed. We won’t be filing as many this year due to the short session. However, there will still be more than those I listed. Elizabeth Beyer will be covering the session for Cardinal in the next couple of months. You can sign up to receive our daily newsletter or my weekly West of the Capital newsletter.
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