Arlington schools could be closed down if they can’t accommodate more elementary school students

Arlington Public Schools officials have said that they do not plan to close any elementary schools in the near future due to excess capacity.

Mary Kadera, Board Chair, responded to a question asked at the Arlington County Civic Federation meeting last week.

Kadera and fellow board members Kathleen Clark, Beth Zecher Sutton, and Superintendent Francisco Duran attended the annual meeting.

Kadera, in response to your question, acknowledged that the 25 elementary schools in the county have enough capacity to justify, in theory at least, using one for a new purpose.

She said that the real-world situation and whether or not schools are able to meet their stated capacity, given all of the programs they offer, is still a factor.

Kadera explained that “when we know this, we will have a better understanding of what space is available. We’ll also be able to determine if that space crosses the threshold that would allow us to even start having that conversation.” “But we’re not there yet.”

According to data from the school system, the ratio of permanent seats to students at elementary schools is 91%. There are about 1,400 seats more than students if you include temporary classroom buildings in the count.

If taken to the extreme, school officials could theoretically close not just one but two of their smallest primary schools while only slightly exceeding 100% of current available seats. The upcoming boundaries-adjustment is expected to coincide with a comprehensive review of real-world capacities.

Already, planning is in place to examine the student population at elementary and middle schools. Staff at the school will create possible scenarios during the summer and then engage the community in the fall.

The School Board will vote on boundary changes in December 2026/27.

The School Board adopted formal policies last year on the process of decision-making.

Bethany Zecher Sutton, a board member of the Civic Federation, said: “We are doing it with a little more structure and with a little more information to hopefully help families understand what they can expect when this unfolds.”

According to data from the school division, Arlington‘s 25 elementary public schools had 12,646 total students in kindergarten and fifth grade as of February.

Cardinal Elementary, with 692 students, had the highest enrollment. Three schools, Campbell, Dr. Charles Drew, and Nottingham reported enrollments below 400.

Eight elementary schools, however, had rates higher than 100%, and they used portable classrooms in order to accommodate overflow.

The current student-enrollment forecasts are valid through 2034-2035, but they can be unreliable after five years. They suggest that the enrollment in elementary schools will continue to increase over the next few year, and then start to decline.

Before considering boundary changes for high schools, school leaders will wait until the opening date of the new Arlington Career Center, Grace Hopper Center. Kadera stated that no specific timeline has been established for this process.