A 2026 report from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality finds that groundwater levels have dropped below sea level across large inland areas of the Coastal Plain east of Interstate 95. Decades of heavy pumping, especially from paper mills near Franklin and West Point, have reversed the natural predevelopment flow patterns in the aquifer system. Water now tends to move inward from the margins toward major industrial withdrawal centers and downward from higher to lower units.
The study was prepared in response to Senate Joint Resolution 25 from the 2024 General Assembly session. It evaluated the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system, including the Eastern Virginia Groundwater Management Area and the Eastern Shore Groundwater Management Area. Multiple lines of evidence, including long-term water-level records, hydraulic analysis, and modeling, support the conclusion that the regional flow regime has been fundamentally altered from its natural state.
Historical Pumping and Hydraulic Changes
Large industrial withdrawals over many decades created extensive cones of depression. Paper mills ranked among the highest-volume users and contributed significantly to the decline of inland water levels. When elevations fell below sea level, the natural outward and upward gradients were inverted. Groundwater began flowing toward the centers of greatest withdrawal rather than toward coastal discharge areas, and vertical movement shifted downward through the layered aquifer system.
The confined Potomac aquifer, the largest and deepest unit, accounts for approximately 70 percent of total reported and estimated withdrawals in the Eastern Virginia management area. On the Eastern Shore, the Yorktown-Eastover system supplies about 95 percent of withdrawals. Combined use across both areas shows industrial demand at 35 percent, private domestic at 34 percent, and public water supply at 26 percent. Private domestic withdrawals remain largely unpermitted and are estimated from census and water-use data.
Observed Consequences and Monitoring
The altered flow conditions contribute to land subsidence caused by compaction of aquifer sediments under reduced pressure. They also increase the potential for regional saltwater intrusion, with localized increases in chloride concentrations documented in parts of Eastern Virginia and on the Eastern Shore. Comparison of water-quality data sets spanning more than a century indicates that regional-scale chloride patterns have remained relatively stable, yet local trends linked to nearby pumping continue to appear.
The statewide groundwater observation well network, a cooperative program between the Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey, includes more than 440 wells. Many provide continuous water-level records, while dedicated subsets monitor climate response, drought, and chloride. Expansion of the network is underway in both the Coastal Plain and areas west of Interstate 95. These data formed a primary basis for the historical analysis of withdrawals and water-level changes presented in the report.
Regulatory Context and Recent Trends
The Ground Water Management Act of 1992 requires permits for withdrawals of 300,000 gallons or more in any month within designated management areas. The report characterizes the act’s results as mixed. Following the 2010 closure of the Franklin Mill and subsequent management actions between 2014 and 2017, the annual overall groundwater deficit in the Potomac aquifer was reduced to nearly zero for about a decade. Regional levels rose and broadly stabilized until approximately 2021, after which rising trends stalled and signs of renewed decline emerged.
Modeling of future capacity shows that the aquifer system currently has limited ability to accommodate significant new withdrawals. Hypothetical industrial demands of three million gallons per day failed to meet permit criteria at every tested location. Maximum allowable new volumes ranged from 360,000 gallons per day in Northumberland County to less than 30,000 gallons per day in several western regions near the Interstate 95 corridor.
Policy Considerations
The Department of Environmental Quality offers recommendations that include clarifying statutory authority to deny or reduce permits when alternative sources such as surface water or reuse are reasonably available, requiring local comprehensive plans in management areas to reflect groundwater constraints, and addressing scientific and legal questions before any groundwater trading program is considered. Managed aquifer recharge projects are noted as potential tools for future capacity restoration.
The documented decline of inland water levels below sea level and the reversal of natural flow patterns provide a technical foundation for decisions by the General Assembly, the State Water Control Board, and local governments. The findings confirm that historical industrial pumping has produced lasting changes in the hydraulic behavior of the Coastal Plain aquifer system, with implications for both current water availability and long-term resource management.
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