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Virginians can now begin voting on whether the state should temporarily redraw its congressional districts as part of a rare springtime special election.
The step, tied to a proposed constitutional amendment, comes after Virginia’s General Assembly approved the measure, followed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s signing. Former President Barack Obama announced his support for the effort Thursday.
Currently, Virginia has elected six Democrats and five Republicans across its 11 congressional districts. But under the proposed changes, Democrats have said they anticipate being positioned to win up to 10 seats.
Typically, redistricting happens at the start of every decade. If voters approve the changes, the new map would be in place for the 2026 and 2030 midterms, as well as the 2028 presidential election.
“We are very realistically looking at a map, if it passes, where the Democrats could win 10 out of the 11 seats here,” said J. Miles Coleman with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “And what the Republicans are saying is, ‘OK, look, Virginia might be a blue state, but we’re not like a 90% blue state.”
The redistricting effort has faced legal challenges, but Virginia’s Supreme Court ruled that voting should proceed as planned while justices review those challenges. A lower court ruled to block the plan.
The state’s highest court is expected to make a ruling after April 21, the day of the special election.
“If it passes, the judges can be in a position to say, ‘OK, look, it already passed. Let’s just go with it,’” Coleman said. “Or if they don’t do that, they could kind of be in the very rare position of saying, ‘OK, well, we had an election. It passed, but because of the process, the election is void.”
Polling on the proposed amendment, Coleman said, has produced different results. A Christopher Newport University poll had the measure passing, but a Roanoke College poll had it failing.
The Roanoke poll, Coleman said, used language that the change could give Democrats 10 seats. The Christopher Newport University poll question didn’t mention political parties, Coleman said.
Traditionally, ballot questions are aligned with fall elections, Coleman added.
“In Virginia, we are used to having some type of election every year,” Coleman said. “But even for us, the timing of this is different, which may have implications about who turns out.”
